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The dynamic vegetation modeling framework LPJ-GUESS

LPJ-GUESS is a global dynamic model that is being jointly developed an applied by the IMK-IFU PAI group and Lund University, department of Physical Geography & Ecosystem Analysis. The model is designed to simulate global and regional dynamics and composition of vegetation in response to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition (Sitch et al., 2003;Smith et al., 2014;Smith et al., 2001). At IMK-IFU, we are particularly interested in the interactions of terrestrial processes with climate change and land-use change (Lindeskog et al., 2013;Pugh et al., 2014), and the processes and feedbacks that operate between the human and natural “components” of the Earth System (Arneth et al., 2014;Knorr et al., 2014;Bayer et al., 2014). We contribute to a number of international model-intercomparisons and assessments, like ISI-MIP and the GLP annual update of the global carbon budget (Rosenzweig et al., 2014;Le Quéré et al., 2014), and the development of the Earth System model ECEarth.


The Plant-Atmosphere-Interactions group is running LPJ-GUESS under a variety of research questions. 

Schematic overview over LPJ-GUESS.


Arneth, A., Brown, C., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.: Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2250, 2014.

Bayer, A., Arneth, A., Pugh, T. A. M., and Krause, A.: Historical and future quantification of terrestrial carbon sequestration from a greenhouse-gas-value perspective, submitted, 2014.

Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., and Weber, U.: Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences, 11, 1085-1102, 10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014.

Le Quéré, C., et al.: Global carbon budget 2013, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235-263, 10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014.

Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Waha, K., Seaquist, J., Olin, S., and Smith, B.: Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385-407, 10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013.

Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Arvanitis, A., Bayer, A., Lindeskog, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., and Schurgers, G.: Accounting for land management notably reduces projections of the terrestrial carbon sink, submitted, 2014.

Rosenzweig, C., et al.: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3268-3273, 10.1073/pnas.1222463110, 2014.

Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the lpj dynamic global vegetation model, Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185, 2003.

Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: Comparing two contrasting approaches within european climate space, Global Ecology & Biogeography, 10, 621-637, 2001.

Smith, B., Warlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027-2054, doi:10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.