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Mark Rounsevell

Prof. Dr. Mark Rounsevell

Professor at KIT and Head of Research Group
group: Land Use Change
room: 237
phone: +49 8821 183 198
fax: +49 8821 735 73
mark rounsevellSPAM∂kit edu

Mark Rounsevell is Professor of Land Use Change and Head of IMK-IFU’s Land Use Change Research Group.


His research focuses on the human dimensions of environmental change, including the analysis of socio-ecological systems, land use and land cover change and the impacts of climate change on natural resources. He combines qualitative, social elicitation methods with social simulation models to undertake experiments on human-environment interactions and works with a number of different modelling approaches from local to global scale levels, both in the present and for future environmental change scenarios.


He coordinates the European Commission funded OPERAs project (OPerationalizing Ecosystem Research Applications, www.operas-project.eu) and contributes to the LUC4C project (Land-use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation, luc4c.eu) and IMPRESSIONS project (Impacts and risks from high-end scenarios: Strategies for innovative solutions, www.impressions-project.eu).


He contributes to a number of international research initiatives including being:

  • Co-chair of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services (IPBES) regional assessment for Europe & Central Asia;
  • Co-chair of the Human Dimensions’ Focal Research Group for the Community Surface Dynamics Modelling System (CSDMS) (https://csdms.colorado.edu) ;
  • Lead author to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Assessment Reports of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);
  • A member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Future Earth AIMES project (Analysis & Integrated Modelling of the Earth System);
  • A member of the Expert Panel of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (phase 2).


Mark also holds the Chair David Kinloch Michie Chair of Rural Economy and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Edinburgh.


Recent publications (last 5 years)

Engström, K., Olin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Brogaard, S., van Vuuren, D.P., Alexander, P., Murray-Rust, D. & Arneth, A. (in press). Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework. Earth System Dynamics, 00, 000-000

Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P., Arneth, A., […], Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Global Change Biology, doi 10.1111 gcb.13447

Brown, C., Brown, K. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016) A philosophical case for process-based modelling of land use change. Modelling Earth Systems and Environment 2(2), 1-12.

Brown, C., Holzhauer, S., Metzger, M.J., Paterson, J.S., Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems. Regional Environmental Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-0999-y

Engström, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Murray-Rust, D., Hardacre, C., Alexander, P., Cui, X., Palmer, P.I., Arneth, A. (2016) Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 75, 212-229.

Harrison, P.A., Dunford, R., Holman, I.P. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions. Nature Climate Change, DOI10.1038/nclimate3039

Li, S., Gilbert, L., Harrison, P.A., & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A., et al. (2016). Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13337

Alexander, P., Moran, D. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Evaluating potential policies for the UK perennial energy crop market to achieve carbon abatement and deliver a source of low carbon electricity, Biomass and Bioenergy, 82, 3-12 

Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J.R., Engstrom, K. & Moran, D. (2015). Drivers for global agricultural land use change: the nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy. Global Environmental Change, 35, 138-147 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011

Bakker, M., Jamal Alam, S., van Dijk, J. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model. Landscape Ecology, 30(2), 273-286 DOI 10.1007/s10980-014-0116-x

Bakker, M., Jamal Alam, S., van Dijk, J., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Spek, T. & van den Brink, A. (2015). The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change. Landscape Ecology, 30(5), 791-804 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-014-0145-5

Blanco, V., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Characterising forest owners through their objectives, attributes and management strategies. European Journal of Forest Research. 134, 1027-1041. 1027-1041 DOI 10.1007/s10342-015-0907-x

Brown, C., Brown, E., Murray-Rust, D., Cojocaru, G., Savin, C. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios. Climatic Change, 128, 293-306 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1133-0

Dullinger, S., Dendoncker, N., Gattringer, A., Leitner, M., Mang, T., Moser, D., Mücher, C.A., Plutzar, C., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Willner, W., Zimmermann, N.E. & Hülber, K. (2015). Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on climate-driven migration of European forest understorey plants. Diversity & Distributions, 1-13, DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12370

Dunford, R., Harrison, P.A., Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Tinch, R. (2015), Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity. Climatic Change, 128, 339-354 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1162-8

Dunford, R., Harrison, P.A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Exploring scenario and model uncertainty in cross-sectoral integrated assessment approaches to climate change impacts. Climatic Change, 132, 417-432. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1211-3

Guillem, E.E., Murray-Rust, D., Robinson, D.T., Barnes, A.P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Modelling farmer decision-making to anticipate trade-offs between provisioning ecosystem services and biodiversity. Agricultural Systems, 137, 12–23

Harrison, P.A., Dunford, R., Savin, C., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Holman, I.P., Kebede, A.S. & Stuch, B. (2015). Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors. Climatic Change, 128, 279-292 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1239-4

Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Harrison, P.A., Omann, I., Dunford, R., Kammerlander, M. & Pataki, G. (2015). Assessing policy robustness of climate change adaptation measures. Climatic Change, 128, 395-407, DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1240-y

Jepson, M.R. […], Rounsevell, M.D.A. et al. (2015). Transitions in European land-management regimes between 1800 and 2010. Land Use Policy, 49, 53-64, DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.07.003

Kebede, A.S., Dunford, R., Mokrech, M., Audsley, E., Harrison, P.A., Holman, I.P., Nicholls, R.J., Rickebusch, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Sabaté, S., Sanchez, A., Sallaba, F., Savin, C.-M., Trnka M. & Wimmer, F. (2015). The sensitivity of cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on key European sectors. Climatic Change, 128, 261-277 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y

Vogiatzakis, I.N., Stirpe, M.T., Rickebusch, S., Metzger, M.J., Xu, G., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Bommarco, R. & Potts, S.G. (2015). Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites. Environmental Conservation, 42, 31-40 doi:10.1017/S0376892914000137

Yang, A.L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Wilson, R.M. & Haggett, C. (2015). Multilevel governance, decentralisation, and environmental prioritisation in rural development policy in Scotland: Is it working in practice? Journal of Environmental Policy and Governance, 25, 399-411. DOI: 10.1002/eet.1690

Yang, A.L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Wilson, R.M. & Haggett, C. (2015). Recentralisation through regionalisation in the implementation of Rural Development Policy in Scotland. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 58, 1666-1689. DOI:10.1080/09640568.2014.942726

Yang, A.L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Haggett, C., Piorr, A. & Wilson R. (2015). The use of spatial econometrics, stakeholder analysis and qualitative methodologies in the evaluation of rural development policy. Journal of Environmental Assessment, Policy and Management, DOI:10.1142/S1464333215500234

Acosta-Michlik, L.A., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Bakker, M., Van Doorne, A., Gómez Delgado, M. & Delgado, M. (2014). An agent-based assessment of land use and ecosystem changes in a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal. Intelligent Information Management, 6, 55-80

Alexander, P., Moran, D., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Hillier, J. & Smith, P. (2014). Cost and potential of carbon abatement from the UK perennial energy crop market. Global Change Biology Bioenergy, 6, 156–168, doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12148

Arneth, A., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Brown, C. (2014). Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment. Nature Climate Change, 4, 550–557. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2250

Brown, C., Murray-Rust, D., van Vliet, J., Alam, S.J., Verburg, P.H. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2014). Experiments in globalisation, food security and land use decision making. PLOS One, 9(12), e114213 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0114213

Fisher, J. A., Patenaude, G., Giri, K., Lewis, K., Meir, P., Pinho, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Williams, M. (2014). Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation: a conceptual framework. Ecosystem Services, 7, 34-45

Fontaine, C.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Barbette, A-C. (2014). Locating household profiles in a polycentric region to refine the inputs to an agent-based model of residential mobility. Environment & Planning B, 41, 163-184

Jacob, D., […], Rounsevell, M.D.A., et al. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 563-578. DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

Karali, E., Brunner, B., Doherty, R., Hersperger, A.M. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2014). Identifying the Factors That Influence Farmer Participation in Environmental Management Practices in Switzerland. Human Ecology, 42(6), 951-963 DOI 10.1007/s10745-014-9701-5

Murray-Rust, D., Brown, C., van Vliet, J., Alam, S.J., Robinson, D.T., Verburg, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2014). Combining Agent Functional Types, capitals and services to model land use dynamics. Environmental Modelling & Software, 59, 187-201

Murray-Rust, D., Robinson, D.T., Guillem, E., Karali, E. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2014). An open framework for agent based modelling of land use change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 61, 19-38

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Alexander, P., Brown, D.G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ellis, E., Finnigan, J., Galvin, K., Grigg, N., Harman, I., Lennox, J., Magliocca, N., Parker, D.C., O’Neill, B.C., Verburg, P.H. and Young, O. (2014). Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 117-137

Yang, A.L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Wilson, R.M. & Haggett, C. (2014). Spatial analysis of agri-environmental policy uptake and expenditure in Scotland. Journal of Environmental Management, 133, 104-115

Acosta-Michlik, Klein, R., Reitsma, P., Metzger, M., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Leemans, R. & Schroeter, D. (2013). A Spatially Explicit Scenario-Driven Model of Adaptive Capacity to Global Change in Europe. Global Environmental Change, 23, 1211-1224 

Alexander, P., Moran, D., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Smith, P. (2013). Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 10, 20130656 doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0656

Fisher, J. A., G. Patenaude, P. Meir, A. J. Nightingale, M. D. A. Rounsevell, M. Williams and I. H. Woodhouse (2013). Strengthening conceptual foundations: analysing frameworks for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation research. Global Environmental Change, 23, 1098-1111

Hardacre, C. J., Palmer, P. I., Baumanns, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Murray-Rust, D. (2013). Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land use change in response to growing food needs. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13, 5451-5472

Karali, E., Brunner, B., Doherty, R., Hersperger, A.M. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2013). The effect of farmer attitudes and objectives on the heterogeneity of farm attributes and management in Switzerland. Human Ecology, 41, 915-926, DOI 10.1007/s10745-013-9612-x

Murray-Rust, D., Rieser, V., Robinson, D.T., Milicic, V. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2013). Agent-based modelling of land use dynamics and residential quality of life for future scenarios. Environmental Modelling & Software, 46, 75-89

Guillem, E.E., Barnes, A.P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and A. Renwick (2012). Refining perception-based farmer typologies with the analysis of past census data. Journal of Environmental Management, 110: 226-235.

Robinson, D.T., Murray-Rust, D., Rieser, V., Milicic, V. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2012). Modelling the impacts of land system dynamics on human well-being: using an agent-based approach to cope with data limitations in Koper, Slovenia. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 36, 164-176

Rounsevell, M.D.A., et al. (2012). Challenges in Land System Science. Land Use Policy, 29, 899-910

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Robinson, D. and Murray-Rust, D. (2012). From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 367, 259-269

Spangenberg, J., Carter, T., Fronzek, S., Jaeger, J., Jylhä, K., Kühn, I., Omann, I., Paul, A. Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Schweiger, O., Stocker, A., Sykes, M., Settele, J. (2012). Scenarios for investigating risks to biodiversity Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 5-18

Metzger, M.J. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2011). A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry. Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 031001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/031001

Murray-Rust, D., Dendoncker, N., Dawson, T., Acosta-Michlik, L., Karali, E., Guillem, E. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2011). Conceptualising the analysis of socio-ecological systems through ecosystem services and agent based modelling. Journal of Land Use Science, 6, 83-99

Rickebusch, S., Metzger, M.J., Xu, G., Vogiatzakis, I.N., Potts, S.G., Stirpe, M.T. and Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2011). A qualitative method for the spatial and thematic downscaling of land-use change scenarios, Environmental Science and Policy, 14, 268-278