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Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate
change simulations (QUIRCS)

QUIRCS is a joint project of six project partners within the
DEKLIM Research Programme.


The scientific aims are

  • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data,
  • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, and 
  • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the quantified uncertainties.


A number of climate simulations with different regional climate models are performed for Central Europe at a horizontal resolution of about 18 km. Comparisons are made between simulation results and analyzed observations (model evaluation) and between different simulations under the same climate conditions (model intercomparison).


Three global climate scenarios are regionalized, representing

  • present day climate conditions derived from ECMWF analysis,
  • present day climate conditions produced by climate simulation with the ECHAM4 model, and
  • future climate conditions also generated by an ECHAM4 global simulation.


Further information can be found under http://www.tu-cottbus.de/meteo/Quircs/home.html


IMK-IFU has contributed by the subproject "Regionalization of Global Climate Scenarios with MM5". Performed and analyzed are a 15 year run to regionalize the ECMWF-Analysis and two 30 year runs to regionalize the time slices 1960-89 and 2070-99 of the ECHAM4 scenarios. Additional work concentrates on investigations concerning the influence of model resolution on simulation results. 



Model evaluation by downscaling
of ECMWF Reanalysis 1979-1993


MM5-Simulation vs. DWD-Observation:

Deviation of annual precipitation in percent



QUIRCS Final Report  (pdf, 15 MB) 



Kotlarski, S., A. Block, U. Böhm, D. Jacob, K. Keuler, R. Knoche, D. Rechid, A. Walter, 2005: Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: Evaluation of uncertainties, Advances in Geosciences, 5, 119-125.

Walter, A., K. Keuler, D. Jacob, R. Knoche, A. Block, S. Kotlarski, G. Müller-Westermeier, D. Rechid, W. Ahrens, 2006: A high resolution reference data set of German wind velocity 1951-2001 and comparison with regional climate model results. Meteorol. Zeitschrift, doi: 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0162.


Contact: Hans Richard Knoche